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Jonathan Gressel
 Plant Sciences, Weizmann Institute
of Science, Rehovot, Israel
Current address: Agronomy Department,
Purdue University, Lafayette IN, USA
Email:
Jonathan.Gressel@weizmann.ac.il
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One need not be an economist to realize
the rapid changes being wrought on agriculture due to the high fuel
prices, it only requires a quick insight into what is happening in the US corn
belt. A whole new economy is kicking in, with huge public and private
investment, with promises of rapid profits, now that the pundits are
promising that oil prices will never again drop below $50 a barrel, and it
is presently well above $60. Fifty dollars is the magic threshold number
that renders the technologies of turning quality grain into ethanol, and
food oils to biodiesel profitable in the USA, where they only pay half for
fuel at the pump than most of the developed world. Some of us have
ranted for years that we must genetically engineer the 2 billion tons of
straws and stovers to contain less and/or modified lignin. So far more
polysaccharides could become available for cellulase degradation that
would support such technologies1. The biofuel industry has not
targeted this waste substrate; at $50 a barrel they are happy to use
quality grain – taking the food out of peoples’ mouths. This is not just
excess grain – this is whatever the market will bear in competition with
petroleum, and will lead to higher grain prices around the world.
This huge investment in factories to
quickly reap a bonanza will clearly stabilize the bottom price for grain
at a much higher price than at present. The good side is that subsidies
will no longer be needed in the west, and the African farmer will no
longer have to compete with “dumped” grain, i.e. grain sold below the
actual production costs. But the African farmer will have to gear up to
production, instead of subsistence. The scary side is that there will no
longer be stocks available for famine relief in times of need. There
never will be “over production”, “set-aside” or surpluses again as long as
oil is more than $50 per barrel. Even with all excess grain going to biofuel
production, it will only make a small dent in the total fuel needs of the
west and growing fuel needs in Asia. The magic fifty dollars also renders
nuclear energy a viable alternative for much of the fuel, but it takes
nearly a decade to build a nuclear power plant, and that is after the
decision is made to build one. Such decisions are not fast in coming, and
other alternative energy sources (e.g. wind, solar) cannot match the
magnitude of the shortfall, no matter how appealing they might look.
The only viable take home message from this is that Africa
must quickly prepare itself to go it alone vis-a-vis its food security.
The question: “should we accept transgenic maize as food aid?” will be
moot in a very short time, as such maize will no longer be available – it
will be running someone’s automobile. Africa must quickly come to the
realization that it must rapidly shift from subsistence agriculture, with
yields a third of global averages to productive agriculture to feed
Africans. It can do this only by having good seed bred and available,
fertilizer available at near international prices, and not an
unjustifiable four times these prices. There must be extension services
that get to the farmers and teach the most sustainable, cost-effective
practices. An infrastructure with good storage facilities is critical to
ensure storage for times of need, as well as an equitable price to the
farmer. If India could get such a storage infrastructure going decades
ago, Africa has few excuses for not doing so other than a lack of will
except for a willingness to be dependent on foreign food aid.
The key needs described
above started with good seed (and not the long ago discredited but still
repeated mantra of “farmer-saved seed”, so often mouthed by those who
never watched how good seed deteriorates season after season in the hands
of all but the very best farmers – the few who grow “certified” seed).
The good seed must be of more crop species than presently grown, and it
must be adapted to local conditions. It should come with as many built-in
resistances as possible; resistance to abiotic stresses, high fertilizer
use efficiency, resistance to African insect, rodent, and avian pests
during cultivation and storage, resistance to indigenous diseases and the
debilitating mycotoxins their pathogens produce, along with resistance to
that scourge of much of Africa, the parasitic witchweeds (Striga
spp.). Good breeding can surely help, but where decades of breeding have
proven ineffectual, the biotechnology sector must kick in2.
This must be done in more species than maize, as crop biodiversity is also
an essential element of food security. Biotechnology priorities should not be
haphazard, but based on evaluations of need. Biotechnology will play an
important role, a role that will be useless if the other institutional and
infrastructural issues are not addressed. And they must be dealt with
quickly, as biofuel plants are quickly coming on line, sucking up the
grain that came to Africa. Africa may have thought it need not produce
and store grain for winter – but winter is on the way.
References
1Gressel,
J. and A. Zilberstein. 2003. Let them eat (GM) straw. Trends in
Biotechnology 21:525-530.
2Gressel,
J., A. Hanafi, G. Head, W. Marasas, A. B. Obilana, J. Ochanda, T. Souissi,
G. Tzotzos. 2004. Major heretofore
intractable biotic constraints to African food security that may be
amenable to novel biotechnological solutions. Crop Protection 23:661-689
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